Edmonton Mid-Year Market Outlook

Rimrock Real Estate

07/19/21

Residential Unit Sales and Prices are Steady for Summer

Edmonton, July 5, 2021: Total residential unit sales in the Greater Edmonton Area (GEA) real estate market for June 2021 increased 33.4% compared to June 2020 and decreased 0.3% from May 2021.

New residential listings are up year-over-year, increasing 19.9% from June 2020. New residential listings are also up month-over-month, increasing 1.2% from May 2021. Overall inventory in the GEA was down 0.9% from June of last year and increased 5.9% from May 2021.

For June, single-family home unit sales are up 28.8% from June 2020 and down 6.9% from May 2021 at 1,676. Condo unit sales increased 47.2% from June 2020 and decreased 21.4% from May 2021. Duplex/rowhouse unit sales were up 34% year-over-year and down 1.5% month-over-month.

All residential average prices are at $398,229, a 10.6% increase from June 2020 and down 0.8% from May 2021. Single-family homes averaged $472,637, a 11.6% year-over-year increase and a 1.5% increase from May 2021. Condominiums sold for an average of $241,808, a 9.9% increase year-over-year, and prices are averaging the same as May 2021. Duplex prices increased 8.1% from June 2020, selling at $356,085, which was a 0.6% decrease from May 2021.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price* in the Greater Edmonton Area trended up to $350,200, an 8% increase from June 2020, and up 0.7% from May 2021.

“The Edmonton market in June saw an increase in year-over-year residential unit sales,” says REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Chair Tom Shearer. “There have also been more sales of single-family homes, condos and duplexes compared to June of last year, while month-over-month activity has started to cool off in some markets compared to May. Of course, we need to keep in mind the drastic difference between 2020 and 2021, but we are still witnessing a strong market that is beginning to balance out for the summer season.”

Single-family homes averaged 28 days on the market, a 25-day decrease from June of last year. Condos averaged 53 days on the market, a 13-day decrease year-over-year, while duplexes averaged 32 days on the market, a 32-day decrease compared to June 2020. Overall, all residential listings averaged 36 days on the market, decreasing by 23 days year-over-year and increasing by three days compared to May 2021.

Mid-Year Market Outlook

Now nearly 18 months since the beginning of the pandemic in North American markets, one thing is evident - there has been a paradigm shift that has left no Canadian real estate market unaffected.  With so much time spent isolated, Canadians have turned inwards and re-evaluated their living situations.  It is in our mind a positive shift - with less emphasis being placed on work and more emphasis being placed on family and the personal relationships that are important.  The pandemic has shifted the mindset of many towards how they want to enjoy time with family and friends post pandemic. Proximity to work is less important with increasing importance being placed on indoor and outdoor space and proximity to amenities and those near and dear. 

Like the rest of the world it seems, Alberta has experienced a real estate renaissance not seen since 2014 when oil prices were hovering close to $130 dollars a barrel.  The large momentum and activity in the starter and move-up markets are now translating into increased activity in all price points, including luxury.  Multiple bids on properties correctly priced are common.  This results in disappointment for some and increased incentive and motivation for it to not happen again for others. 

The fervor in the market is likely to continue.  Edmonton has seen record sales and prices month in and month out in 2021 as compared to 2020 - but that was to be expected as we were comparing figures to those from the start of the pandemic.  It will be interesting to compare q3 and q4 figures to those from last year when market activity was more normalized. 

Increased construction prices has pushed some of those who were considering a custom home, to instead vie for resale inventory which are oftentimes priced below current replacement costs. 

As we look forward to the latter half of 2021 we would anticipate some levelling off of sales in part due to the lifting or restrictions.  While the sole interest for much of the last 18 months has been where we live, some of that interest has turned to leisure and travel.  Covid-19 still poses some uncertainties with many nations with high vaccination rates experiencing another wave of infection.  More lockdowns and increased infection rates could again limit inventory and continue to drive up prices.  If things remain positive, with no more lockdowns, and infection rates remaining low, We would anticipate inventory continue to increase as those who have been waiting for an opportunity with elevated prices to finally move forward (which they haven’t been able to do in the last 5 years without a loss) will continue to come to market – offering some stabilization.  These trends will be more apparent with single family homes and duplexes while we expect condos to take a little longer to recover, especially in the core.

We don’t have a crystal ball but we can look to the past to give us some insight into the future.  The situation still varies greatly by product type and neighbourhood and if you would like details specific to your situation, please connect with one of our premier agents for some more thoughtful analysis.  Enjoy the ret of your summer and stay safe.

Sincerely,

The Team at Rimrock Real Estate 

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